For the full year 2012, Telecompaper expects the Dutch market to show a decline of around 2 percent to EUR 5.9 billion in service revenue. Over the period 2012-2016, Dutch mobile service revenues are forecast to show a CAGR of 0.3 percent, reaching around EUR 6.2 billion in 2016. Regulation and the weak economic climate are expected to continue to impact revenues, and Telecompaper expects operators will be forced to change data prices, in response to changing consumer behaviour and further drops in voice revenue.
In the first quarter of 2012, Vodafone outperformed the market. It was the only operator to show a small annual increase in revenue and had the smallest quarterly decline in revenue. KPN lost revenue market share to Vodafone as well as T-Mobile (which showed stable revenues). Vodafone reinforced its second-place position and increased its revenue market share annually by 1.6 pecent, while KPN dropped 2.3 percent and T-Mobile added 0.7 percent.
In terms of customer numbers, the Dutch market (including MVNOs) saw an increase of 3.3 percent annually to 20.9 million at the end of March. Mobile market penetration increased from 121.3 percent in Q1 2011 to 124.8 percent in Q1 2012. KPN’s market lead weakened to 47 percent of all subscribers, while Vodafone saw its market share increase to 29 percent, and T-Mobile was stable at 25 percent.
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