Houten, The Netherlands, 16 August 2011 - The Dutch mobile industry generated EUR 1.53 billion in revenue in the second quarter of 2011, showing a decrease of 4.5 percent compared to the same quarter last year and an increase of 3.7 percent compared to the first quarter of 2011. According to Telecompaper's quarterly mobile market monitor, the main reason for the annual decrease in revenue continues to be the sharp drop in voice revenue due to regulatory effects. Seasonally the second quarter is stronger than the first quarter; this year it showed a quarterly growth of EUR 55 million. Non-voice services, consisting of data and SMS, now contribute 35 percent to total mobile service revenues; these are not growing fast enough to fully offset the erosion in voice revenues.
Leading market research firm Telecompaper has updated its five-year outlook for the Dutch mobile industry. Based on the recent quarterly results and current market conditions, we have slightly lowered the outlook for service revenues both for the short and long term. For 2011 we expect the Dutch market to show a service revenue decline of around 3 percent to EUR 6.0-6.1 billion over the full year. For the period 2010-2015, the Dutch market is expected to show a CAGR of -0.3 percent, which means service revenue will slightly decline to around EUR 6.2 billion in 2015.
"MTA reduction will continue to have an impact on voice revenues in the short term, with SMS revenues also coming under pressure. Meanwhile, mobile VoIP is lurking around the corner, and could constitute the next threat, ” said Alejandra van de Roer, Telecompaper senior research analyst and author of Telecompaper’s quarterly mobile market monitor for The Netherlands. “It will be very difficult for operators to counteract these negative trends.”
In terms of overall service revenue performance, Vodafone outperformed the market in the second quarter and was the only operator to show stable revenue on an annual basis, boasting the largest relative revenue growth compared to previous quarter. Both KPN and T-Mobile lost revenue share to Vodafone. Vodafone reinforced its second place position and increased its market share annually by 1.4 percent to an above 30 percent market share, while KPN’s market share declined by 1.1 percent to just below 46 percent. T-Mobile’s market share went down by only 0.5 percent to just below 24 percent.
In terms of mobile SIM numbers (including MVNOs), the Dutch market saw an increase of 3.6 percent annually to 20.7 million at the end of June 2011. As a consequence mobile market penetration increased from 120.3 percent in Q2 2010 to 124.0 percent in Q2 2011. KPN’s market leader position decreased slightly to below 48 percent of all subscribers, Vodafone saw its market share increase to just above 27 percent, while T-Mobile rose slightly to around 25 percent.
This latest report from Telecompaper's continued research into developments on the Dutch communication services market looks at the leading Dutch mobile network operators: KPN, Vodafone, T-Mobile and includes the MVNO market. The report analyses second quarter 2011 results, both the revenue and subscriber base, and compares the findings with results from the first quarter of 2011 and second quarter of 2010. The report provides splits at different levels, from postpaid to prepaid but also voice and non-voice, each by individual operator. Additionally, it also includes a five-year forecast (both revenue and subscriber) for the Dutch market. Single-user price for the report is EUR 445.00. More information can be found on our website www.telecompaper.com.
Alejandra van der Roer – Market Research Phone: +31 30 6349600 E-mail: alejandra@telecompaper.com