Houten, The Netherlands, 26 November 2010 - The Dutch mobile industry generated EUR 1.6 billion in revenue in the third quarter of 2010, showing a decrease of 0.7 percent compared to the same quarter last year and and a drop of 2.3 percent when compared to the second quarter of 2010. According to Telecompaper's quarterly mobile market review, the main reason for the annual decrease in revenue was the stronger decline in voice revenue due to MTA and competition, which was not quite compensated for by the growth in non-voice revenue.
Leading market research firm Telecompaper has updated its five-year outlook for the Dutch mobile industry. Based on the recent quarterly results, current MTA tariffs and adjustment of figures due to operator’s changes in definition (see note 1), Telecompaper has lowered its predictions for the Dutch mobile market. For 2010, we expect service revenue on the Dutch market to show a decline of around 0.4 percent versus 2009, to around EUR 6.3 billion.
For the period 2009-2014, the Dutch market is expected to show a CAGR of 1.0 percent reaching around EUR 6.7 billion in revenues in 2014. "Main reason for the lower forecast is the MTA reduction to 1 cent in two year’s time, which will have an enormous effect on voice revenues, although it should mostly be compensated for by the further growth in data revenues,” said Alejandra van de Roer, Telecompaper senior research analyst and author of Telecompaper’s quarterly mobile market monitor for The Netherlands.
In terms of mobile SIMs (including MVNOs), the Dutch market saw a drop of 6.3 percent annually to 19.9 million at the end of September 2010. Main reason for this drop was the exclusion of inactive prepaid users at both KPN and T-Mobile. On a quarterly basis, the market remained stable, only adding six thousands SIMs compared to the second quarter of 2010. Due to the annual drop, mobile market penetration dropped from 128.6 percent in Q3 2009 to 120.1 percent in Q3 2010. KPN’s market leader position increased slightly to above 49 percent of all subscribers, Vodafone saw its market share increase to almost 27 percent, while T-Mobile dropped to 24 percent (mainly due to T-Mobile’s deactivation of mobile prepaid SIMs).
Note 1: We adjusted retroactively and recalculated our figures, due to the following changes: T-Mobile changed its Service revenue definition, as of Q1 2010 it will be excluding transfer (also called transit) revenues as a measure of group-wide equal treatment of mobile service revenues. Also Vodafone Netherlands’ service revenues as reported by Vodafone Group do no longer include 'Inter Standard Roaming services' from April first 2010.
This latest report from Telecompaper's continued research into developments in the Dutch communication services market looks at the leading Dutch mobile network operators: KPN (including Telfort), Vodafone, T-Mobile (including Orange) including the MVNO market. It analyses third quarter 2010 results, both revenue and subscriber base, and compares the findings with results in the second quarter 2010 and third quarter 2009. The report provides splits at different levels, from postpaid to prepaid but also voice en non-voice each by individual operator. Additionally it also includes a five-year forecast (both revenue and subscriber) for the Dutch market. Single-user price for the report is EUR 445.00. More information can be found on our website www.telecompaper.com.
Alejandra van de Roer - Senior Research Analyst Phone: +31 30 6349600 Fax: +31 30 6349699