While the proportion of NFC-enabled smartphones will be only marginally below previous estimates by 2017, global NFC retail transaction values are now expected to reach USD 110 billion in 2017, significantly below the USD 180 billion previously forecast, according to a report by Juniper Research.
The report also shows that Apple’s decision to omit an NFC chipset from the iPhone 5 has reduced retailer and brand confidence in the technology, leading to reduced point of sale rollouts and less NFC campaigns. This in turn is expected to generate lower NFC visibility amongst consumers and fewer opportunities to make payments, threatening a cycle of “NFC indifference” in the short term.
The report found that Apple’s move would impact most dramatically on markets in North America and Western Europe, where transaction values would exhibit a “two year lag” on previous forecasts as retailers delay POS investments.
Conversely, retail transactions in NFC’s heartland in Japan and Korea are expected to experience little or no impact from the decision. It also observed that lower than expected adoption of Google Wallet allied to a delayed launch of the ISIS NFC project in the US would also have a negative effect on that market.
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