eBay's quarterly results offer a small bit of insight into the performance at Skype, which since 19 November is only 30 percent owned by eBay.
To start with, it appears the settlement with Joltid, the Skype founders' company, cost USD 343 million. As a result of that agreement, Skype can continue using the Joltid technology, including the Global Index software. It's unclear what period the agreement covers, or how much the legal fees were, but this initially appears a small sum. Ebay sold a 70 percent stake in Skype on the basis of a USD 2.75 billion valuation, and there are already rumours of an IPO with a valuation of around USD 4 billion.
Among the few details in the Ebay report we also find Skype's sales figures. Consolidated for 30 percent since 19 November, Skype contributed USD 112 million in sales. Estimating Skype's full sales, based on a similar revenue per day, we come to a figure of USD 166.5 million for the fourth quarter - and that's disappointing. That's equal to a 10 percent sequential decline, but 15 percent growth year-on-year. That points to a sharp slowdown in growth. This may be the result of promotions offering free call minutes.
Recent (preliminary) figures from Telegeography suggested that Skype had expanded its share of the international market (mainly Skype-to-Skype) to 13 percent. Over the long term, this may be a good strategy: first build a customer base, and then monetise it. The disappointing sales figures and the data from Telegeography show that Skype is mainly successful in the Skype-to-Skype market. The problem is the money has to be earned with the SkypeOut service (fixed and mobile calls at low rates) and SkypeIn (receiving a phone number for a monthly fee).
After the turbulence of recent months (lawsuit with Joltid, uncertainty over eBay's sale plans), and the launch of Google Voice, the hope is that Skype hasn't started losing paying customers.
