Cisco forecasts acceleration in IP traffic growth

Cisco expects the growth in global IP traffic to accelerate to a CAGR of 23 percent in the period 2014-2019, compared to an estimated 21 percent in its previous forecast for 2013-2018. The growing number of internet users around the world, more personal devices and the increasing amount of M2M connections, faster broadband speeds and more use of online video services are driving the growth in IP traffic, Cisco said. The company's latest Visual Networking Index predicts that global IP traffic will reach 168 exabytes per month by 2019, up from 59.9 exabytes in 2014. This means that by 2019 nearly as much traffic will traverse global IP networks than all prior 'internet years' combined (from 1984 to the end of 2013). 

By the end of the forecast period, just over half of the world's projected population is expected to use the internet. These 3.9 billion internet users will have a total 24 billion networked devices/connections, or an average 3.2 devices per person, compared to an estimated 14 billion total or average 2 per capita last year. Over the same period, M2M connections are forecast to more than triple to 10.5 billion by 2019. In addition to more connected devices, Cisco expects broadband connections to get faster. The average fixed broadband speed is expected to more than double, from 20.3 Mbps in 2014 to 42.5 Mbps in 2019. 

Also driving the increase in traffic is the growing use of online video services and increased video resolution. As a result, IP video is expected to account for 80 percent of all internet traffic by 2019 versus 67 percent in 2014. Other services contributing to the growth in traffic include online music (1.7 billion users by 2019), mobile location-based service (over 2 billion users by 2019) and desktop and personal videoconferencing (220 million business users by 2019). 

Mobile networks will still account for only a minority of IP traffic in the forecast period, at an estimated 14 percent in 2019 versus 53 percent over Wi-Fi and 33 percent on fixed networks. In 2014, fixed networks still took the majority of traffic (54%), while Wi-Fi accounted for 42 percent and cellular 4 percent.