Worldwide mobile data traffic will increase 26-fold to reach 6.3 exabytes per month or an annual run rate of 75 exabytes by 2015, due to a projected surge in mobile internet-enabled devices delivering popular video applications and services, according to a study by Cisco. This traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate of 92 percent over the same period. A continued surge in mobile-ready devices such as tablets and smartphones, and widespread mobile video content consumption are driving these significant mobile data traffic increases. The Cisco study predicts that by 2015, more than 5.6 billion personal devices will be connected to mobile networks, and there will also be 1.5 billion machine-to-machine nodes, nearly the equivalent of one mobile connection for every person in the world. Mobile video is forecast to represent 66 percent of all mobile data traffic by 2015, increasing 35-fold from 2010 to 2015, the highest growth rate of any mobile data application tracked in the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast. Mobile traffic originating from tablet devices is expected to grow 205-fold from 2010 to 2015, the highest growth rate of any device category tracked.
Global mobile data traffic increased 159 percent from calendar year 2009 to calendar year 2010 to 237 petabytes per month, or the equivalent of 60 million DVDs. According to the updated forecast, the Middle East and Africa will have the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rates, with a compound annual growth rate of 129 percent (63-fold growth) over the period. Latin America anticipates a 111 percent CAGR (42-fold growth), followed by Central and Eastern Europe, with a 102 percent CAGR (34-fold growth), and Asia-Pacific, with a 101 percent CAGR (33-fold growth). Western Europe is forecast to experience a 91 percent CAGR (25-fold growth); North America, an 83 percent CAGR (20-fold growth); and Japan, a 70 percent CAGR (14-fold growth). India has the highest national mobile data traffic growth rate, with a CAGR of 158 percent for the forecast period, followed by South Africa, with a 144 percent CAGR and Mexico, with a 131 percent CAGR. Comparatively, the United Kingdom will see an 84 percent CAGR and the US an 83 percent CAGR, according to the updated forecast.
The Cisco study estimates that by 2015, there will be a mobile connected device for nearly every member of the world's population and more than 7.1 billion mobile connections to handsets, other devices and machine-to-machine nodes excluding Wi-Fi connections. Smartphones, laptops, and other portable devices will drive more than 87 percent of global mobile traffic by 2015. Mobile network-connected tablets will generate more traffic in 2015 (248 petabytes per month) than the entire global mobile network in 2010 (237 petabytes per month). The same will be true of M2M traffic, which will reach 295 petabytes per month in 2015. The average mobile network connection speed doubled from 2009 to 2010 and is expected to increase 10-fold by 2015.
