The Dutch mobile industry generated EUR 1.53 billion in revenue in the second quarter, down 4.5 percent from the year before on the back of regulatory effects which hit voice revenue, according to Telecompaper’s latest quarterly mobile market monitor. Revenues were up 3.7 percent from the previous quarter. The second quarter is seasonally stronger than the first, and this year it showed a quarterly growth of EUR 55 million. Non-voice data and SMS services contributed 35 percent to total mobile service revenues and were not able to fully offset the erosion in voice revenues.
Telecompaper has updated its five-year outlook for the Dutch mobile industry, slightly lowering its outlook for service revenues both for the short and long term. For 2011, the researcher expects the Dutch market to show a service revenue decline of around 3 percent to EUR 6.0-6.1 billion over the full year. For the period 2010-2015, the Dutch market is expected to show a CAGR of -0.3 percent, which means service revenue will slightly decline to around EUR 6.2 billion in 2015. Voice revenues, hit by MTA reduction in the short term, will in the longer term be negatively impacted by mobile VoIP, with SMS revenues also under pressure. Operators will find it difficult to counteract these negative trends.
In terms of overall service revenue performance, Vodafone outperformed the market in Q2 and was the only operator to show stable revenue on an annual basis, boasting the largest relative revenue growth compared to Q1. Both KPN and T-Mobile lost revenue share to Vodafone. Vodafone reinforced its second place position and increased its market share annually by 1.4 percent to an above 30 percent market share, while KPN’s market share declined by 1.1 percent to just below 46 percent. T-Mobile’s market share went down by only 0.5 percent to just below 24 percent.
In terms of mobile SIM numbers (including MVNOs), the Dutch market saw an increase of 3.6 percent annually to 20.7 million at the end of June. As a consequence, mobile market penetration increased from 120.3 percent in Q2 2010 to 124.0 percent in Q2 2011. KPN’s market leader position decreased slightly to below 48 percent of all subscribers, Vodafone saw its market share increase to just above 27 percent, while T-Mobile rose slightly to around 25 percent.
