The Dutch mobile market is on track for 5 percent growth in services revenues in 2007, but could see a slowdown in 2008, according to market researcher Telecompaper. In the third quarter of 2007, mobile services revenues grew 1.1 percent from Q2 and were up 4.3 percent from a year earlier, to a total EUR 1.620 billion. The market added 471,000 new customers in the quarter, for a total 18.914 million at the end of September, according to Telecompaper's quarterly mobile market monitor.
Market leader KPN had the best performance in terms of subscriber additions in the quarter with 293,000 new connections, while number two Vodafone added just 2,000 new customers. T-Mobile also underperformed, adding just 1,000 new customers, while its merger partner Orange gained 38,000 customers, of which almost half were postpaid. MVNOs such as Tele2, UPC and Lycamobile also performed well in postpaid, boosting their combined postpay market share to 4.7 percent from 3.1 percent a year ago.
Revenue growth in the third quarter came from the postpaid market, which posted a 7.0 percent rise in services revenues compared to a year ago, to EUR 1.37 billion. Prepaid revenues were down 8.6 percent from a year earlier, with all four network operators showing lower prepay revenues. Non-voice services such as SMS and data also helped revenue growth in Q3, increasing 21.6 percent from the year-earlier period to EUR 337 million. Voice revenues meanwhile fell versus Q2 and showed only a small rise year-on-year, to EUR 1.28 billion.
Telecompaper expects the slowdown in the prepay market and voice revenues to lead to lower revenue growth in 2008. While Dutch mobile subscriber numbers will continue to grow, passing an estimated 19 million this year and 20 million in 2008, services revenue growth will slow to an estimated 3-5 percent in 2008, due to regulatory cuts in mobile termination rates and lower roaming revenues.
