The value of global music sales via the internet will reach $3.9 billion in 2008, according to a new report by Informa
Media Group. The report, MUSIC ON THE INTERNET (4TH EDITION), estimates that the share of music sales online will rise
from 4.5% in 2003 to 11.9% in 2008. Hard format recordings will continue to account for the greatest share of this total
in the years to 2008. However, the combined revenues from digital downloads and subscription services will rise to $1.8 billion in 2008.
The evolving nature of the p2p networks ensures that file-sharing will continue into the medium term at least.
With greater emphasis on privacy and anonymity, access to p2p networks is set to increase markedly in the years to
2008. Informa Media expects the music industry to have some success in limiting consumers' access to illegal networks.
However, high levels of unauthorised music copies will still be available to exchange through p2p-style networks. MUSIC
ON THE INTERNET (4TH EDITION) estimates the value of lost sales to the music industry will rise from $2.4 billion in
2003 to $4.7 billion in 2008.
Author of the report Simon Dyson said: "The determination of the p2p community to develop services that allow users to
share music anonymously will keep a lid on any attempts to develop a legitimate download sector".
Music sales via the internet have previously been hailed as a massive growth sector, Informa Media believes its
significance has been exaggerated and will not, as some suggest, prove to be the industry's long-term saviour. However, the fall in the value of music sales will not continue indefinitely. "The impact on the value of global sales will lessen in 2004 and growth, albeit small, will return to the industry in the second half of 2005" stated Dyson.
While subscription services may become secondary to a-la-carte downloads in the short term, Informa Media does
not believe they will not be abandoned by the music industry altogether. Those consumers that become comfortable with
downloading and regularly purchase a-la-carte downloads are likely to switch to a subscription service that provides greater value for money.
MUSIC ON THE INTERNET (4TH EDITION) is published by Informa Media Group, which also publishes the influential Music &
Copyright newsletter. The report contains forecasts for music sales both online and offline up to and including 2008 as
well as a detailed analysis of the different online music players and sectors.
