Based on billions of online and in-store transactions analysed by the IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark and IBM Quarterly Retail Forecast, IBM predicts another strong shopping season with online sales projected to increase 15 percent over the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. The biggest increase in online sales is expected on Cyber Monday, predicted to grew 15.8 percent, followed closely by Thanksgiving with a projected increase of 15.6 percent. Still widely considered the busiest day for in-store shopping, Black Friday online sales are expected to grew 13 percent.
A primary driver of the online growth, mobile browsing is expected to account for 48.2 percent of all online traffic over the five-day period, an increase of 23 percent over last year. Mobile sales are also expected to rise, accounting for 24.4 percent of all online sales, up 9.5 percent year-over-year. Apple's dominance in mobile shopping experiences is also expected to continue with iOS device traffic projected to double that of Android devices, and sales expected to quadruple.
For the first time ever, IBM predicts more than half of all online shopping on Thanksgiving, roughly 53 percent, will come from a mobile device, up 23 percent year-over-year. Mobile sales are also expected to grow, reaching 28 percent of all Thanksgiving online sales, an increase of more than 9 percent over 2013.
As consumers become more comfortable with digital couponing, IBM predicts shoppers will save dollars this holiday season as they cash in on online deals. Consumers will spend on average USD 123.28 per online order over the five-day holiday period, a decline of 2.9 percent over 2013. At the same time, the average number of items included in those purchases will be 4.4 items per order, an increase of 17 percent.
IBM predicts click-through rates for emails sent during the five-day shopping period will be 10 percent higher than the same period last year, due to data-driven insight which allows marketers to reduce the amount of unwanted email and instead, deliver personalised and relevant promotions. The company also estimates that 35 percent of all click-throughs will happen on a mobile device. The highest volume of emails is expected on Cyber Monday.
Smartphones will continue to lead in mobile browsing over the five-day shopping period, accounting for 29 percent of all online traffic versus 15 percent for tablets. However, IBM predicts tablets will account for twice as many mobile purchases than smartphones due to the larger screen size.
The retail industry can look forward to strong holiday in-store sales with 4 percent growth predicted during the November and December shopping period. Health and Beauty products are expected to lead the way with 4.2 percent and 4.7 percent growth, respectively, followed by women's clothing at 2.61 percent.
These predictions are based on historical and real-time trend data analysed across hundreds of US retail websites. The resulting online shopping insight is based on data from IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark which, in its seventh year of holiday reporting, tracks more than 370 performance indicators.
