The four Dutch mobile operators - KPN, Vodafone, T-Mobile and Tele2 - generated combined mobile service revenues of EUR 3.86 billion in 2018, down 3.8 percent from the previous year, according to the latest report from Telecompaper. The figures show that T-Mobile and Tele2, which merged at the start of 2019, showed the strongest growth in 2018. Together their revenue market share nearly matched Vodafone, making the new combination a strong rival for second place in the Dutch mobile market, behind KPN.
The overall drop in mobile revenues in 2018 was due to price pressure from tough competition, especially in the B2B segment. The market also suffered from the impact of regulation, through lower termination and roaming rates, and lower out-of-bundle revenues, due to more 'all-in' and unlimited plans and changing consumer usage. In addition, the growing popularity of Sim-only and fixed-mobile bundles - often with mobile discounts - impacted the market.
Tele2 and T-Mobile showed revenue growth in 2018, while revenues at KPN and Vodafone were lower. This led to an increase in market share for Tele2 and T-Mobile, while especially Vodafone lost market share.
Tele2, T-Mobile strong number 3
Tele2 and T-Mobile completed their merger at the start of 2019. In 2018, the two generated combined revenues of EUR 1.1 billion. That's equal to a market share of 29.4 percent, just behind Vodafone with 30.6 percent.
T-Mobile and Tele2 have been steadily growing their market shares over the past three years. This was driven mainly by strong revenue growth at Tele2 after it became a full network operator in 2015. In 2018, Tele2's revenues rose 18.9 percent. Vodafone and KPN lost market share as a result of the expansion at T-Mobile and Tele2, amid pressure both in the consumer and business segments. Market leader KPN saw its share drop to around 40 percent in 2018 from 40.6 percent in 2016.
Sims still growing
The number of mobile customers in the Netherlands rose by 1.1 percent in 2018, led by a continued expansion in postpaid. Prepaid dropped to 22.4 percent of the market. In total, there were 20.5 million active Sims in the Netherlands at year-end, excluding the M2M market. Mobile penetration rose slightly last year, to 118.9 percent.
Revenue decline to continue
Telecompaper expects service revenues on the Dutch mobile market to contract by another 2-3 percent in 2019, to around EUR 3.8 billion. Over the five years to 2023, a compound annual growth rate of -1.5 percent per year is expected, for revenues of EUR 3.6 billion in 2023. The regulatory impact should diminish somewhat during the forecast period, while customers continue to migrate to bigger data bundles. Price pressure will remain an important factor, even after the merger of T-Mobile and Tele2.
