Mobile WiMax is attracting huge interest as the leading next-generation wireless access technology, and it is being pitched as the dawn of a new era in "personal broadband" - but uncertainties around technology, spectrum, and big-name industry support cloud the outlook for mainstream adoption, according to a new report from the subscription research service Unstrung Insider ( www.unstrung.com/insider ).
The report, entitled Mobile WiMax: Who Goes Where?, identifies and analyzes the chipset and systems vendors innovating in this critical, long-term market. According to developers interviewed for the research, core technologies driving Mobile WiMax (a.k.a. 802.16e, or WiBro) will deliver spectral efficiency and end-user throughput superior to today's 3G networks. The question is: How rapidly can this technology can be productized and deployed?
Most of the innovation in scaleable OFDMA (orthogonal frequency division multiple access) and smart antenna systems today appears to be driven by aggressive startups and vendors focused on leapfrogging fixed WiMax (802.16-2004) plays, with an eye toward developing portable systems that encroach upon the lucrative 3G infrastructure market.
However, Gabriel Brown - Unstrung Insider Chief Analyst and author of the report - says that OFDM and MIMO are also on the roadmap for 3G evolution, and that major cellular vendors and operators may be more comfortable with this timeline and standardization process. "Established players are unlikely to move aggressively on mobile WiMax, leaving it to disenfranchised wireline operators and equipment vendors with weaker mobile infrastructure market-share positions to pick up the early pace," says Brown.
Among the report's key findings:
The first Mobile WiMax services will launch in Korea in mid 2006, using Samsung equipment; U.S. service launches will follow, possibly as soon as 2007
Stealth chipset startups are attempting to leapfrog the market and go directly to Mobile WiMax; names in the frame include Beecem, SiWave, Cygnus, Runcom
Adaptix claims to have already demonstrated system-level mobility based on scaleable OFDMA
A market for 802.16e linecards and software will emerge alongside demand for smart antenna software suites, as major fabs and OEMs catch on to Mobile WiMax's potential
Companies covered in this report: Adaptix Inc.; Airspan Networks Inc.; Alcatel (NYSE: ALA; Paris: CGEP:PA); Alvarion Ltd. (Nasdaq: ALVR); Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI); Aperto Networks Inc.; ArrayComm Inc.; Aspex Semiconductor Ltd.; Beecem Communications Inc.; Cambridge Broadband Ltd.; Cygnus Communications Inc.; Ericsson AB (Nasdaq: ERICY); Fujitsu Ltd. (Tokyo: 6702; London: FUJ); Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.; Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC); LG Electronics Inc. (London: LGLD; Korea: 6657.KS); Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LU); Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT); Navini Networks Inc.; NextNet Wireless Inc.; Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK); Nortel Networks Ltd. (NYSE/Toronto: NT); PicoChip Designs Ltd.; Proxim Corp. (Nasdaq: PROX); Redline Communications Inc.; Roke Manor Research Ltd.; Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (Korea: SEC); Sequans Communications; Siemens AG (NYSE: SI; Frankfurt: SIE); SiWave Inc.; SR Telecom Inc. (Toronto: SRX); TeleCIS Wireless Inc.; Wavesat Wireless Inc.; Wi-LAN Inc. (T oronto: WIN); and ZTE Corp. (Shenzhen: 000063; Hong Kong: 0763).
