Shipments of notebook PCs in the first quarter were better than expected due to the commercial PC refresh cycle and Windows XP migration, according to a new report from NPD DisplaySearch. However, shipments of tablet PCs at 56 million declined year-over-year for the first time. Many brands reported weak tablet PC shipment results in the quarter due in part to delayed launches of new products. NPD DisplaySearch has lowered its forecast for tablet PC shipments in 2014 to 285 million.
For the past several years, tablet PCs and smartphones have been the primary growth driver in the smart device category. In 2014, the year-over-year growth rate of tablet PCs will fall to just 14 percent and by 2017 will slow to single digits.
NPD DisplaySearch expects that competition between 5.5-inch and larger smarpthones and 7-7.9-inch tablet PCs will reduce demand for tablet PCs through 2018. Unit share for 7-7.9-inch tablet PC displays peaked at 58 percent in 2013, but it will gradually decline in 2014 and beyond. Major brands are likely to move to larger sizes, and shipments of 8-10.9-inch tablet PCs will overtake 7-7.9-inch tablet PCs by 2018. In addition, NPD DisplaySearch expects 11-inch and larger tablets will exceed 10 percent of the market by 2018.
