
Telecompaper improved its five-year outlook for the Dutch mobile industry, mainly due to changes in mobile termination rates. A court ruling in August provided for a slower reduction in the rates, which should have a positive influence on forecast revenues in 2012 and 2013. However, the ruling will have little impact on 2011, and the market researcher still expects the Dutch market will contract around 3 percent to EUR 6.0-6.1 billion in service revenue this year. For the period 2010-2015, the Dutch market is now expected to show a CAGR of 0.1 percent, which means service revenues will be relatively stable at around EUR 6.3 billion in 2015. Telecompaper previously expected a CAGR -0.4 percent over the period. In the third quarter,
Vodafone outperformed the market and was the only operator to show higher revenues on both an annual and quarterly basis. Mainly KPN lost revenue market share to Vodafone. In terms of mobile SIMs (including MVNOs), the Dutch market saw an increase of 5.2 percent annually to 21.0 million at the end of September 2011. Mobile market penetration increased from 120.4 percent in Q3 2010 to 126.1 percent in Q3 2011. KPN’s market leader position fell to 47 percent of all subscribers, while Vodafone saw its market share increase to 28 percent, and T-Mobile rose slightly to 25 percent.