KPN showed the biggest annual decline (-7%) in service revenues in the third quarter, while T-Mobile (-4%) and Vodafone (-3%) showed relatively smaller drops. Vodafone was the only one to show higher revenues on a quarterly basis, leading to an increase in its market share. KPN saw its market share decrease by 1.0 percent annually, while T-Mobile increased by 0.4 percent and Vodafone added 0.7 percent.
Telecompaper has updated its five-year outlook for the Dutch mobile industry and now expects service revenues to show a decline of 4.1 percent to EUR 5.8 billion over the full year 2012. For the forecast period 2011-2016, the Dutch market is expected to be flat, with service revenue in 2016 at around EUR 6.1 billion, similar to 2011.
Regulation and the weak economic climate are expected to continue to have an effect on operators’ revenues, as well as the growing threat from OTT services. Telecompaper expects operators will have to adjust their tariffs further to take account of the shift to data-centric customer behavior and counteract the drop in voice and SMS revenues.
In terms of mobile SIMs (including MVNOs), the Dutch market saw an increase of 0.8 percent annually to 21.1 million at the end of September 2012, equal to a penetration of 126.0 percent of the population. KPN’s market leader position eroded slightly to below 47 percent of all subscribers, while Vodafone saw its market share increase to almost 29 percent. T-Mobile declined slightly to around 24 percent.
