The smartphone market will grow just 3.1 percent to 1.48 billion units this year, below the previous prediction of a 5.7 percent growth, according to the latest report from IDC. The figure represents a significant slowdown from growth of 10.5 percent last year and 27.8 percent in 2014, said IDC, which updated its forecast to reflect the continued deceleration in China and mature markets, with Japan and Canada expected to contract by 6.4 percent and 6.9 percent. However, shipments are still set to increase at a CAGR of around 5 percent to 1.84 billion by 2020.
The report said vendors are shifting their focus toward trying to ensure that smartphone life cycles aren't extended further. Early trade-in programmes, such as the one Apple is facilitating, as well as the broader range of cheap unlocked devices, will play a significant role in keeping mature market life cycles close to two years, said IDC.
Low prices will help Android dominate smartphone shipments this year, with Google’s OS set to grow 6.2 percent in 2016 with 1.24 billion shipments, increasing to 1.57 billion in 2020. Android is expected to grow from 81 percent of all shipments in 2015 to 84 percent in 2016 with an average selling price of USD 218 and dropping below USD 200 in 2019.
Sales of the iPhone are expected to decline by 2 percent to 227 million in 2016, the first ever negative year for Apple’s device, according to IDC. However, the report predicts that the company's early trade-in programme, the lower-cost Apple iPhone SE and the growth of markets such as China, India and the Middle East could help turn things around for Apple.
