he Dutch mobile industry generated EUR 1.48 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2011, showing a decrease of 4.7 percent compared to the same quarter last year and a decline of 4.9 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. According to Telecompaper's quarterly mobile market monitor, the main reason for the annual decrease in revenue was the sharp drop in voice revenue due to regulatory effects and tough competition. Seasonally the first quarter is weaker than the fourth quarter, but this year the sequential decline was much bigger. While non-voice services such as data and SMS now contribute over 35 percent of revenue, these are not growing fast enough to offset fully the erosion in voice revenues.
Telecompaper cut its 2011 and five-year outlook for the Dutch mobile industry. For 2011 the market researcher expects the Dutch market to show a decline of around 1 to 3 percent to EUR 6.0-6.1 billion in service revenue. For the period 2010-2015, the Dutch market is expected to show a CAGR of 0 percent (down from the previous 1.6%), which means service revenue will remain flat at around EUR 6.3 billion in 2015. The weak outlook is due to further cuts in termination rates in the near term, as well as expected increased pressure from VoIP services and erosion in SMS revenues.
Vodafone outperformed the market in the first quarter and was the only operator to show a small annual revenue increase. Both KPN and T-Mobile lost revenue share to Vodafone. Vodafone reinforced its second place position and increased its market share annually by 1.6 percent, while KPN dropped 1.1 percent and T-Mobile only by 0.5 percent.
In terms of mobile SIMs (including MVNOs), the Dutch market saw an increase of 1.4 percent annually to 20.2 million at the end of March 2011. Mobile market penetration increased from 120.2 percent in Q1 2010 to 121.2 percent in Q1 2011. KPN’s market leader position decreased slightly to 48 percent of all subscribers, Vodafone saw its market share increase to almost 27 percent, and T-Mobile rose slightly to around 25 percent.
