The number of subscriptions to video-on-demand services (SVoD) such as Netflix is now expected to reach 949 million this year worldwide, 5 percent more than if the coronavirus pandemic had not taken place, according to the latest study from Strategy Analytics. The earlier, pre-pandemic guidance had been for 902 million. And although the longer term impact of the coronavirus remains uncertain, the researcher believes paid SVoD subscriptions will increase by 621 million by end-2025 to 1.43 billion.
China and the US dominate
China and the US together account for 65 percent of paid SVoD subscriptions globally, but that share should decline to 55 percent in 2025, as the markets mature and approach market saturation, and as other markets, such as in Southeast Asia, grow.
But despite the declining global share, China will remain the largest SVoD market with paid subscriptions rising to 438 million in 2025 from 131 million in 2019.
Numbers in the US will increase to 342 million in 2025, from 125 million. Strategy Analytics noted that nearly three-quarters of US TV households subscribing to one or more SVoD service, which means the market is becoming saturated. However, households are adding more services as more come on board, such as CBS All Access, Disney+, and the soon-to-launch HBO MAX. This means the total number of SVoD subscriptions in the US will continue to grow.
Looking ahead, longer term is less rosy
In general, the virus will give a near-term boost to SVoD subscription numbers, but in the mid to longer term, much will depend on the length of the pandemic and the resulting economic damage.
“As businesses shut down and individuals are laid off, (people) are going to have to make hard decisions about how they spend their money and as wonderful as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+ and other SVOD services may be, they are not essential services,” the researcher said.
