Revenues on the Dutch pay-TV market are set to turn lower in 2021, as subscriber numbers fall faster than the increase in prices. Telecompaper forecasts a 1.2 percent fall in annual revenues from residential TV services to around EUR 1.79 billion, and the market contraction is expected to continue in the next five years as competition from OTT streaming services puts pressure on the pay-TV market.
The forecasts are included in the latest edition of Telecompaper’s Dutch Television Market report, for Q3 2021. This shows the number of consumer TV subscribers in the Netherlands was down 0.5 percent year-on-year to 6.9 million at the end of September 2021. Telecompaper expects a similar rate of decline over the full year 2021.
At the start of the year, Telecompaper expected TV market revenues largely stable in 2021, similar to last year. However, customer numbers fell steadily over each quarter this year. The annual price increases implemented by the biggest TV providers in July led to a small increase in Q3 revenues on a quarterly basis, but these were not enough for annual growth. Consumer TV revenues fell 1.7 percent year-on-year to EUR 447 million in Q3 2021.
The drop in Q3 was due to mainly to VodafoneZiggo losing customers. After reporting a drop in residential TV customers for five consecutive quarters, VodafoneZiggo’s market lead is down 1.1 percent points in the past year to 48.4 percent at the end of September 2021.
"The traditional TV providers are finding it more difficult to upsell customers to bigger packages in the face of the growing number of streaming video providers on the market," said Kamiel Albrecht, Telecompaper’s senior analyst for the fixed market and author of the Dutch Television Market report. "With more and more people deciding they don’t need a TV subscription at all and can rely on online video, we expect the mass-market TV revenues to continue to fall, dropping at a CAGR of 1.3 percent over the five years to 2025."
The Dutch Television Market Q3 2021 report is available now for purchase. It includes a detailed overview of connections and revenues for mass-market TV services, including a breakdown by company, provider and network technology, as well as the five-year forecast and an overview of the main market trends. For more information or to order a customised market analysis, please contact research@telecompaper.com.
