Smartphone shipments will lift 13.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, after returning to growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to the latest study from IDC. The advance will be driven by continued recovery in demand and a supply-side push of 5G devices. For full-year 2021, shipments are seen up 5.5 percent, following a contraction in 2020 of almost 6 percent. The study noted an accelerated growth in online channels, climbing to a share of 27 percent in 2020 from 20 percent in 2019, as channels adapt to the pandemic. For 2020-2025, smartphones will increase by a CAGR of 3.6 percent.
China and the US, the two largest geographic markets, should this year lift by 5.0 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, boosted by 5G developments and the success of the recently launched iPhones. The markets declined 10-11 percent last year amid the pandemic. The outlook for China remains stable despite several city-level lockdowns in January, reflecting the strength of consumer confidence there.
5G as driving force, also for lower prices
5G remains the driving factor looking forward, again further pushed by the success of Apple’s full 5G iPhone 12 line up. IDC expects 5G smartphone shipments to account for over 40 percent of global shipments this year and reach 69 percent in 2025.
The success of 5G smartphones and the iPhone line have bumped up IDC’s estimate for overall average selling price (ASP) for smartphones in general this year to USD 363, from its previous forecast of USD 349. Looking at 5G ASPs in particular, increasing competition in the 5G Android space, particularly from Chinese vendors, will push prices down to USD 404 by the end of the forecast period in 2025.
