BIPT and the three regional media regulators (VRM, CSA en Medienrat) have called for open access on the Belgian cable networks. This would apply to the operators Telenet, Brutele, Numericable, Tecteo (known as Voo) and AIESH, and their underlying services for analogue and digital TV and broadband, as well as triple play. At the moment it's still a proposal, to which market parties can respond until 18 February 2011. The regulators hope to have a definitive plan by next summer. Telenet is against the proposal, pointing to the infrastructure competition already on the market, among DSL, satellite, DTT and cable providers. Telenet's share price, which a few days ago hit a high of EUR 32.45, fell to around EUR 28, or about the same level as two months ago. Two years ago, the price was as little as EUR 10; Telenet, along with almost all the other European cable companies, has seen its share price on the up since late 2008.
The Belgian plans bring strongly to mind the Dutch regulator Opta's proposal for WLR-C regulation, which was rejected in a court appeal. The Belgian proposal goes further: not just market leader Telenet and not just analogue TV. At the same time, prices in Belgium are clearly higher – a triple-play with broadband at 30Mbps costs EUR 75 per month with Telenet.
The share price reaction suggests Telenet can expect bad news in future. However, wholesale could provide not only a new healthy business but also stronger competition with Belgacom – just as KPN sees its wholesale customers as partners in the fight against cable. Belgacom, via its ADSL network, has built up a substantial position on the Belgian TV market with 920,000 subscribers for its IPTV service. The regulators have every reason to regulate cable, as this would create a level playing field and a symmetric regulatory approach. Of course Telenet, part of the Liberty Global family, points to the existing infrastructure competition, but satellite and DTT (digital terrestrial television) are not two-way networks, and the regulators are looking clearly not just at TV but also at triple play.
Will the proposal succeed? The Dutch case does not offer cause for hope. The problem there was defining the market; the judge found the regional approach unsound and the analysis of analogue TV insufficient. The regional approach in a federal country like Belgium is unlikely to encounter as many problems, but the question is more what the EC will think of the proposal. At the very least, implementation by next summer looks like a stretch, given the likely legal appeals.
Looking at it the other way around, if Belgian does success in opening up the cable, this could be a example for Opta and other regulators. In that case, the way to do it then is not a limited approach (first looking at just analogue TV), but taking a broad view, including also triple play in order to see which operators have significant market power.
