Telecompaper now expects the Dutch market to shrink 6 percent over the full year 2013 to around EUR 5.5 billion in service revenue. Over the five years to 2017, it estimates a compound annual growth rate of minus 2.5 percent, as the economic recession, regulation and the shift to OTT and Wi-Fi services continue to weigh on the sector. The shift in customer behavior towards more data-centric services will force operators to make further changes to their pricing in order to counteract the continuous drop in voice revenues, said Alejandra van de Roer, Telecompaper analyst and author of the quarterly mobile market monitor.
In the third quarter, only T-Mobile increased its market share of service revenues (including wholesale) on an annual basis, at the expense of KPN and Vodafone. T-Mobile was the only operator to grow revenue on a quarterly basis and lost the least amount of revenue on an annual basis, leading to a sequential improvement in its market share. KPN showed the largest absolute decline in revenues across both periods.
The Dutch market saw a slight decrease of 1.3 percent year-on-year in the number of mobile SIMs (including MVNOs), to a total 20.3 million at the end of September 2013. Mobile market penetration decreased from 122.5 percent at the end of September 2012 to 120.5 percent this year. KPN’s market lead increased to just under 48 percent of subscribers (mainly due to the migration of MVNO Lycamobile from Vodafone to KPN), while Vodafone saw its market share decrease to less than 27 percent, and T-Mobile was relatively stable at almost 26 percent.
