GfK has upgraded its forecast for global smartphone sales, saying it sees stronger sales of mid-range and high-end phones, helping to reverse the trend of sub-USD 100 phones gaining share. It now expects annual sales of USD 425.9 billion, equal to growth of 4.9 percent from USD 406.0 billion in 2015, compared to a previous forecast for a small fall to USD 400.7 billion. Unit sales are expected to increase 5.1 percent to 1.394 billion.
GfK's forecasts are based on retail sales, rather than manufacturer shipments as used by most market researchers. GfK said volume growth is coming from many emerging markets, especially a resurgent China, as well as parts of Asia and Africa. Especially consumers in rural areas are driving the demand, it said.
In the second quarter, the market researcher found unit sales rose 6.9 percent year-on-year to 330.1 million smartphones, and sales value increased 6.2 percent to USD 99.7 billion. China showed the strongest growth on both measures, with shipments up 24 percent to 109.7 million and sales value increasing 20 percent to USD 32.4 billion. GfK forecasts that smartphone demand growth in China will moderate in the second half of the year, bringing total sales to 439 million units in 2016, up 14 percent year-on-year.
Central and Eastern Europe also showed double-digit growth in Q2, of respectively 12 percent in units and 16 percent in value, while sales value rose 10 percent in Latin America, despite an 8 percent fall in units sold. Similar trends are expected over the full year for the regions, with unit sales up a projected 8 percent in CEE to 77.1 million and 11 percent lower in Latin America at 94.3 million.
Western Europe recorded 30 million units sold in Q2, a drop of 1 percent both from the previous quarter and year-on-year. The decline was felt most sharply in Spain, where units fell 11 percent year-on year after operators raised tariff prices. In the UK, demand declined 2 percent year-on-year, while France showed 3 percent growth and Germany was up 1 percent.
GfK estimates that 60 percent of phones sold in Western Europe had screens 5 inches or bigger, up from 38 percent a year ago. Correspondingly, the share of smartphones costing USD 500 or more increased from 31 percent in Q2 2015 to 35 percent this year, with unit growth of 12 percent year-on-year.
GfK forecasts that smartphone demand in the region will decline to 134 million units in 2016, a drop of 1 percent year-on-year, while the value of the market will grow by 2 percent to USD 54.2 billion.
The North America remains under pressure, as many consumers wait for new phones expected to launch late in the year. In Q2, unit sales fell 5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 6 percent year-on-year to 42 million. Previous drivers of demand, such as the migration from feature to smartphone and 3G to 4G, are having less of an impact now that the high growth phase is over. In addition, churn rates have fallen in response to carrier’s retention strategies, including family plans.
Over the full year, unit sales in North America are forecast down 1 percent to 188.1 million, and the value of the market will contract also 1 percent to USD 76.6 billion.
