Smartphone shipments will grow 5.7 percent year-on-year to 1.5 billion in 2016, with 2015 likely being the last year of double-digit smartphone growth, according to a report by IDC. The trend of single-digit year-on-year growth is expected throughout the forecast with volumes growing to 1.92 billion in 2020.
The 2015 calendar year finished with 1.44 billion smartphone shipments worldwide, which were up 10.4 percent over 2014. The market will continue to see volumes shifting to the low end with the aggregate market average selling price (ASP) dropping from USD 295 in 2015 to USD 237 in 2020.
From a regional standpoint, mature markets like the United States, China, and Western Europe all hit single digit growth in 2015, while high growth markets such as India, Indonesia, the Middle East and Africa, and other pockets in Southeast Asia, all remained healthy.
Phablets now account for 20 percent of all smartphone volumes in 2015, with expectations that volumes will grow to 32 percent in 2020 or 610 million shipments.
Researchers expect Android shipments to grow from 1.17 billion in 2015 to 1.62 billion in 2020. iPhone shipments hit a new record in 2015 of 231.5 million for growth of 20.2 percent over 2014, which was nearly double that of the overall smartphone market. The researchers expect 2016 to be relatively flat regarding iPhone volume. However, growth should return in 2017 and beyond as its trade-in programs will expand into markets outside of North America and help drive churn. Windows Phone shipments were down 18 percent in 2015 to 11.1 million units.
In terms of market share, Android will be first in 2016 with 82.6 percent, ahead of iOS with 15.2 percent, Windows Phone with 1.6 percent, and others with 0.6 percent. Android will still be far ahead in 2020 with 84.6 percent, followed by iOS with 14.0 percent, Windows Phone with 0.9 percent, and others with 0.5 percent.
