Research In Motion will give an update this week on how the BlackBerry maker is progressing after a difficult start to 2012. To say the company is under extreme pressure is an understatement. The pressure will only increase after the announcement of its quarterly results. When will it let up?
Much has been said already about the breaking point for RIM. Technology companies are reportedly lined up to buy part of all of the company. RIM is also considering licensing its new BlackBerry OS10.
The latter option seems the most likely, given that QNX, the software on which BlackBerry OS10 is based, is already licensed. RIM has never hid the fact that this is an option. Putting the company up for sale in possible, but that's not the focus of the strategic review currently underway, announced by CEO Thorsten Heins in early 2012. Whatever happens, it's very likely that RIM is set for dramatic changes.
In the mean time, it's business as usual. The Canadian company is touring the world to promote BlackBerry OS10. The PR offensive, aimed mainly at developers, is desperately needed. RIM has promised to launch early next year at least two smartphones running BlackBerry OS10. Whether this will be in January, February or March is unknown. After repeated delays, RIM will need to make sure it's ready this time.
With BlackBerry OS10, RIM has promised to create an ecosystem that from the start is already much richer than any other. As a result, it's sparing no cost or effort to restore the prominence of its ecosystem. Developers are being offered free devices (5,000 BlackBerry 10 Dev Alpha devices and 25,000 BlackBerry PlayBooks) and are promised at least USD 10,000 in revenue the first year for apps built for BlackBerry OS10.
Microsoft is making similar efforts to get its Windows Phone / Windows 8 system off the ground. This puts RIM in a two-horse race for the number-three place in the mobile OS market, behind Android and iOS. Microsoft's lot is largely dependent on Nokia, while RIM needs to make it with its own hardware, unless it opts for licensing BlackBerry OS10.
It has been around a year since RIM launched any new devices, and there are still a few months to go before anything reaches the market. The current portfolio of BlackBerry OS7 device offers little to be desired, to put it politely, and the PlayBook tablet was never a success. Furthermore, the number of apps on BlackBerry App World still lags significantly that on the Apple App Store or Google Play.
Still, RIM cannot be totally written off. The company may be seriously in the red, but it has no debt and USD 2 billion in cash. It also can rely on the 78 million BlackBerry subscribers worldwide, among which numerous businesses and public sector organisations, and success in various local markets, especially in Asia and Africa.
With all these opportunities and threats in mind, RIM needs to hold on until next year. The company will miss out on the traditionally strong year-end sales, further eroding its market share. The intention is to rise from the ashes in 2013, but how it will do this, is still a pressing question.
In the Netherlands BlackBerry had a market share of 15 percent of smartphone users in the second quarter of 2012, down from 18 percent a year earlier. More details on this will be available in the upcoming Telecompaper report 'Dutch Smartphone User Q2 2012'.
Telecompaper is organising on 14 November the annual conference Mobiel 2012.
