Research In Motion (RIM) continues to cause concern for investors and shareholders. The Canadian BlackBerry maker has decided to cancel its analysts meeting at the upcoming BlackBerry World conference in May. The reason: BlackBerry World will this year be about customers, developers and partners.
Analysts will have to wait until the official launch of BlackBerry 10. The hope is the new operating system will turn around RIM's fortunes, after its share of the smartphone and tablets market dropped to new lows last year. The exact launch date of BlackBerry 10 is still uncertain. RIM has said in the second half of this year, and a preview is expected in May - although analysts and investors will obviously have to wait. Until then, they will have to settle for the interim offer, BlackBerry 7.
BlackBerry 7 was released last year in May at BlackBerry World. At that time the decline in RIM's market share, especially in the US, had already started. Rumours also circulated of a possible break-up or sale of the company, and shareholders started calling for the heads of co-CEOs Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie (which only started rolling in early 2012). RIM's share price was at around CAD 48 then and has since fallen to around CAD 14.
And the end is still not yet in sight. BMO Capital Markets recently warned for more bad news, saying that until BlackBerry 10 is launched, RIM will continue to suffer, financially and in terms of market share. BlackBerry 10 is RIM's make-or-break moment, an opinion shared by more than one analyst.
Investors and analysts are already in the dark on what's happening with the company, and the decision to keep them away from BlackBerry World will not improve the situation. Many industry watchers don't expect much from the change in management at RIM, after Thorsten Heins took over in late January from Lazaridis and Balsillie. The problems at RIM are thought to be too big for that to be enough.
However, RIM's decision to delay the analysts meeting until after the launch of Blackberry 10 is logical. Only then can it talk with any certainty about the future of the company, even if there is already serious speculation about the company's quarterly results to be announced this week. RIM is currently trading at just 1.6 times estimated EBITDA for 2012, compared to 9.5 for Apple and 7.2 for Nokia. This reflects the concerns about its growth prospects. If the outlook becomes more clear, analysts may raise their estimates, offering a very cheap stock. The company is far from there yet though.
