Global 5G smartphone shipments will reach 278 million this year, and nearly double to 544 million in 2021, according to the latest study from Canalys. Of the total in 2020, 62 percent will be in Greater China, followed by North America and EMEA. Total smartphone volumes are forecast down 10.7 percent this year, with a rebound expected in 2021 of 9.9 percent, to over 1.3 billion units.
Canalys said smartphone shipments are rebounding rapidly in many markets ahead of the economic and retail consumption recovery, with smartphone vendors pushing new product launches, as well as online marketing and sales during the post-lockdown period, generating strong consumer interest for the latest gadgets. The gradual reopening of physical stores, improving logistics and production is also giving a lift, with most markets moving into a more stabilised second half. The holiday season will also give a boost to 5G smartphone sales.
China to ship most 5G smartphones, helped by low prices
Still, the biggest boost will come from China, which got the first entry-level 5G smartphone with Realme’s V3 launch in September, priced under USD 150. The study noted that the milestone happened three months earlier than planned and that it will have a “significant” ripple effect in other regions such as Southeast Asia, EMEA, and Latin America, where Chinese vendors are expanding. By 2021 nearly 60 percent of 5G smartphone shipments in China are expected to be cheaper than USD 400. This will boost 5G penetration in the country, seen reaching 83 percent over the coming 12 months.
Europe will be the third largest region behind Greater China and North America in terms of 5G penetration in 2020 and 2021, helped by already aggressively-priced 5G devices but hindered by continuing uncertainty around Huawei. The study noted that Huawei was long-expected to play a major role in 5G smartphone adoption, but that other brands such as Xiaomi, Oppo and TCL were also jumping in to fill any ensuing vacuum.
Average selling prices for 5G smartphones in Europe are expected to come down, but more steadily, considering Apple and Samsung’s share in this region, reaching USD 765 in 2021 and USD 477 in 2024.
