Service revenues on the Dutch mobile market are expected to fall around 3.3 percent in 2020, according to the latest research by Telecompaper. The forecast for the full year has been increased in a new report from Telecompaper, after the Dutch market performed better than expected in Q3 2020.
In the three months to September, mobile service revenues fell 2.9 percent year-on-year to EUR 907 million, according to the latest edition of Telecompaper’s quarterly Dutch Mobile Operators report. The rate of decline was nearly half that of the year-earlier period. Compared to the second quarter of 2020, Q3 service revenues rose 2.4 percent, supported by seasonal effects.
The relatively better performance in Q3 was likely due in part to a recovery from the depressed second quarter, when the market was impacted by the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic and related restrictions. Small changes in mobile pricing and benefits on fixed-mobile packages in the past year, as well as growing consumer demand for large data packages may also be helping the operators slow the drop in revenues.
"It’s too early to say whether the market has bottomed out, especially given the uncertain effects of the pandemic," said Alejandra van de Roer, Telecompaper analyst for the Dutch mobile market and author of the quarterly report. "We expect the B2B market may come under further pressure in the new year due to the economic recession. However, over the longer term as the economy improves and 5G drives data demand, we should see more small signs of revenue improvement."
The Dutch Mobile Operators report provides a five-year forecast for the market based on the latest trends and analysis. Telecompaper predicts Dutch mobile service revenues will grow at a Compound Average Growth Rate of -1.8 percent over the period 2020-2024, to reach total annual revenues of EUR 3.4 billion in 2024. While intense competition and price pressure are expected to remain, this should be offset somewhat by growth in value-added data services.
The above figures are based on Telecompaper’s Dutch Mobile Operators Q3 2020 report, which is now available for purchase. The quarterly report provides a full analysis of all the KPIs and trends on the mobile market, including a five-year revenue and Sims forecast. To order a copy of the latest edition of the report or receive a customised market analysis, please contact research@telecompaper.com.
